Something is fitting about Boca Juniors opening a new chapter of their season in a competition most of the fanbase still considers a consolation prize. The Copa Libertadores dream ended two months ago against Universidad Católica, right there at La Bombonera, and it took Claudio Úbeda’s job down with it. Now Rodolfo Arruabarrena is back for a second spell in charge, and his first real test in continental football arrives on Thursday against a Chilean side that has already done something most of their squad never expected to do this year.
Let’s be honest. On paper, this looks like the kind of tie Boca should win comfortably. They are one of South America’s great institutions; they are playing at home, and O’Higgins has never faced them competitively before in their history. But football rarely respects paper, and this particular Boca side is still trying to figure out who it actually is.
Arruabarrena’s Rebuild Is Still a Work in Progress
Two weeks ago, Arruabarrena took charge of his first official match since returning to the club, a Copa Argentina win over Sarmiento built on goals from Alan Velasco and Leonel Flores. It was a promising start on the scoreboard, but the buildup told a different story. The coach lost Adam Bareiro to a double muscle tear picked up back in his recovery from injury, and Tomás Belmonte went down with an ankle sprain in training just days before that game. Both remain unavailable here, which matters more than it might sound. Bareiro was central to Boca’s attack in the first half of the year, and Belmonte was one of the few genuine ball winners in a midfield that has looked short of legs at times.
Then there’s the Zeballos situation. The winger wants to leave, has said as much to his coach, and was left out of first-team training as a result. Whether he even features in Arruabarrena’s plans for this tie is genuinely unclear, which tells you something about how much noise is surrounding this squad right now.
On the other side of the ledger, there is real reason for optimism. Leandro Paredes has rejoined training after finishing runner-up with Argentina at the World Cup, and while he may not start given the club’s caution around minutes for players fresh off an international tournament, his mere presence lifts the group. Álvaro Montero has arrived to compete for the goalkeeper spot after his own post-tournament break, and Sebastián Villa has been brought in to add more direct threat out wide, something Arruabarrena clearly wants given his preference for a front-footed 4-3-3.
Here’s the thing about a coach in his first weeks of a second cycle at a massive club. He needs results quickly, but he also needs the freedom to experiment while the pressure is still relatively low. A Sudamericana playoff round against Chilean opposition is about as close to that sweet spot as Boca will get all year.
O’Higgins Have Already Written Their Own History
If you only have twenty minutes to understand why this fixture matters more than the seeding suggests, spend it looking at what O’Higgins have already achieved. Lucas Bovaglio’s side needed a win away at Millonarios in Bogotá just to reach this stage, and they got it in style, going 2-1 up inside 37 minutes through Bastián Yáñez and Alan Robledo before holding on. That result made O’Higgins only the second team in the club’s history to escape a group stage in continental competition, matching a side from 1980 that Rancagua still talks about.
That context matters because O’Higgins are not a team playing with house money out of arrogance. They are playing with house money because they genuinely believe they belong here. At the same time, their domestic form has been a mixed bag. Ninth place in the Chilean Primera with three wins, one draw and three defeats from seven matches is hardly the platform of a team peaking at the right moment, and it raises the obvious question of whether this squad has the legs to back up its European run with a result against a club of Boca’s stature.
Felipe Ogaz has been the standout performer in league play this season, with Francisco González supplying the creativity from midfield and Arnaldo Castillo and Martín Sarrafiore sharing the goalscoring load. None of those names will strike fear into River Plate or Flamengo. But O’Higgins have shown all year that they defend in numbers, stay compact, and wait for their moments, which is exactly the kind of approach that can frustrate a Boca side still searching for cohesion in front of goal.
The Tactical Picture
If recent weeks have taught us anything about this Boca team, it’s that they are more dangerous in transition than they are against a low block. Merentiel’s movement in behind and Velasco’s directness on the ball both thrive on space, and O’Higgins are unlikely to give them much of it inside their own third. Expect Bovaglio’s side to sit in a compact mid-block, protect the space between the lines, and try to hit Boca on the counter through the pace of Yáñez.
For Boca, the concern is patience. This is a squad still adapting to a new coach’s ideas, missing two rotation options through injury, and carrying the psychological weight of a Libertadores exit that ended a coaching cycle. Games like this, first legs against unfamiliar opposition with a return fixture still to come, have a habit of producing cautious, low-event football rather than fireworks.
Prediction
Expected score: Boca Juniors 2-0 O’Higgins
Confidence: Medium
Home advantage at La Bombonera, a fresher squad depth chart despite the injuries, and O’Higgins’ modest away record against sides of this quality all point toward a home win, though not necessarily a comfortable one given how unsettled Boca still look under Arruabarrena.
Home Win: 62%
Draw: 23%
Away Win: 15%
BTTS: 34%
Over 2.5 goals: 41%
Boca should have enough quality and crowd support to control the first leg, but O’Higgins have already proven this year that they do not fold easily under pressure, and the second leg in Rancagua remains very much alive.
