Right then, it is a bit of a mixed bag today. No European qualifiers, but we do have some tasty domestic openers across Europe, plus a few leagues that are already a couple of games in. I have been through the lot, and here are the picks I am backing with my own money today.
Wolves vs Blackburn – Under 2.5 Goals
The Championship is back, and Molineux hosts the opener. Now, I know what the casual punter sees here: Wolves, a Premier League side last season, at home against a mid-table Championship team. Must be goals, right? Wrong. Wolves were absolutely dreadful last season – bottom of the Premier League with just 20 points from 38 games. They have a new manager in Cesar Peixoto, who came from Gil Vicente, and while they beat Port Vale 3-0 in the Cup, that was League Two opposition. Their last ten league games averaged just 0.9 goals scored and 1.7 conceded. Blackburn are not much better – they finished 20th in the Championship last season with 52 points, and their last ten league games averaged 0.8 goals scored and 0.9 conceded. Both teams are cagey, both have new managers trying to figure things out, and opening day nerves tend to produce tight affairs. Under 2.5 goals at around 2.00 is a cracking price, and I am all over it.
Sporting Lisbon vs Vitoria de Guimaraes – Sporting to Win & Both Teams to Score
Sporting were held to a 2-2 draw away to Estrela Amadora on the opening day, which was a bit of a shock, but they are a different animal at the Jose Alvalade. They won 13 of their 17 home league matches last season, and Rodrigo Zalazar was directly involved in both goals last weekend – scoring one and setting up the other. The lad had 21 goal contributions for Braga last season before moving to Sporting, and he looks like he has hit the ground running. Vitoria lost their opener 1-0 at home to Arouca, which is poor, but they have scored in four of the last five meetings with Sporting, and BTTS has landed in four of the last five head-to-heads. Sporting will win this – they are too strong at home – but Vitoria will get one. Sporting to win and BTTS is my play here.
Galatasaray vs Corum FK – Under 3.5 Goals
This is the Turkish Super Lig opener, and defending champions Galatasaray host the newly promoted Corum. Now, Gala are heavy favorites at around 1.27, and rightly so – they won the title with 77 points last season and had the best defensive record in the league. But here is the thing: their preseason has been shambolic. They lost three of their four friendlies, including a 2-1 defeat to Villarreal and a 3-0 hammering by Venezia. Corum, meanwhile, come up from the second tier after finishing fourth and winning the promotion playoffs. They won three of their four preseason games, all with clean sheets, and they are a well-organized side. Gala’s last five competitive home matches have seen under 3.5 goals in four of them, and Corum’s last seven away competitive matches have seen under four goals in six. This is not going to be a rout. Under 3.5 goals at around 1.53 is the smart money.
Holstein Kiel vs St Pauli – Holstein Kiel to Win
This 2. Bundesliga clash is where I see the best value on the board today. Holstein Kiel drew 2-2 away to Darmstadt on the opening day, which was a decent point, and they have been solid at home – winning four of their last ten at Holstein Stadion. St Pauli, on the other hand, are in a proper rut. They drew 1-1 at home to Greuther Furth last week, and they are winless in their last 11 league games. Seven defeats and three draws in their last ten matches, averaging just 0.7 goals scored and 2.1 conceded. Their away record is even worse – one win, seven defeats, and two draws in their last ten on the road. Holstein have won two of their last three home games, and St Pauli’s form is absolutely dire. At 2.38, Holstein to win is the value bet of the day for me.
Dinamo Zagreb vs Rudes – Dinamo Zagreb -2.5 Asian Handicap
This one is a mismatch and a half. Dinamo Zagreb are the dominant force in Croatian football, and they started their Prva HNL campaign with a 2-0 win over Slaven Koprivnica. They have also been in European action, beating Kauno Zalgiris home and away in the Conference League qualifiers. Rudes, meanwhile, have lost both of their opening league games – 2-1 away to Rijeka and a humiliating 6-1 home defeat to Osijek. They have conceded eight goals in two games and sit bottom of the table with zero points. In the head-to-head, Dinamo have won nine of the last thirteen meetings, including a 5-0 thrashing of Rudes last season. Rudes are leaking goals for fun, and Dinamo at home should put three or four past them without breaking a sweat. The -2.5 Asian Handicap is available at decent odds, and I fancy it strongly.
Legia Warsaw vs Radomiak Radom – Legia Warsaw to Win
Legia Warsaw are second in the Ekstraklasa after drawing 1-1 away to Korona Kielce last time out. They are at the Polish Army Stadium today, and they are a force at home. Radomiak Radom have lost their last two league games, including a 3-1 home defeat to Gornik Zabrze where they were second best for most of the match. Legia have the quality, the home advantage, and the momentum. At 1.60, this is a solid banker to anchor any accumulator. Legia should control this from start to finish and get back to winning ways.
Final Thoughts
There you go, six picks to get your Friday going. The standouts for me are Holstein Kiel at 2.38 and Dinamo Zagreb on the handicap – those are the two where I think the bookies have got the prices wrong. The Championship opener between Wolves and Blackburn looks like a grind, so under 2.5 goals is the way to play it. As always, stake sensibly, do not go chasing, and remember that even the best research does not guarantee a winner. But if you stick to the process, the profits come over time. Good luck, and I will catch you tomorrow with more picks.
