What a night that was, lads! Three of four of our main picks from yesterday came in like clockwork. Bradford and Burnley served up a proper 0-0 grind at Valley Parade which made the under 2.5 an absolute banker. Newcastle and West Brom treated us to a five-goal thriller at St James’ Park, meaning both teams to score landed with room to spare. Preston got absolutely battered 4-0 by Everton at Deepdale, so the Toffees win was never in doubt. And Tottenham absolutely dismantled Charlton 5-1 at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, with Solanke, Danso, and Savinho all getting on the scoresheet. But this one goal from Charlton ruined our BTTS – no pick. Three winners from four picks – that is the kind of clean sweep that keeps the bankroll looking healthy. Let us see if we can keep the hot streak going tonight.
Chelsea vs Luton Town – Chelsea to Win & Over 2.5 Goals
Stamford Bridge hosts this Carabao Cup second round tie, and Chelsea should have far too much quality for a Luton side now plying their trade in League One. The Blues made a winning start to their Premier League campaign with a 3-2 victory at Fulham on Monday, with Joao Pedro, Morgan Rogers, and Cole Palmer all finding the net. They had just 39 percent possession but registered six shots on target, which shows how clinical they can be.
Luton have started their League One season with four points from two games and beat Gillingham 3-0 in the first round of this competition. But they are missing Jordan Clark, Shandon Baptiste, and Shayden Morris through injury, and former Chelsea academy product Kasey Palmer is their main creative threat. Chelsea are heavy favorites at around 1.17, so the value is in the over 2.5 goals at 1.40 or Chelsea to win and over 3.5 at around 1.80. Luton will have a go, but Chelsea’s attacking firepower should see this over the line comfortably.
Fulham vs AFC Wimbledon – Fulham to Win & BTTS – No
Fulham host AFC Wimbledon at Craven Cottage, and this looks like a straightforward home win. The Cottagers lost 3-2 to Chelsea in their Premier League opener under new boss Alvaro Arbeloa, but they showed fight with goals from Josh King and debutant Gonzalo Garcia. They have reached the quarter-finals or further in two of the last three seasons in this competition and will be desperate to get their first competitive win under the new manager.
AFC Wimbledon are yet to win a game in normal time this season. They scraped past Newport County on penalties in the first round, drew 0-0 with Reading in League One, and got hammered 3-0 by Huddersfield in their opener. They have scored just two goals in four competitive matches and are missing their main creative players. Fulham to win at 1.20 is short but solid for an acca, and BTTS – No at 1.91 looks a cracking price given Wimbledon’s struggles in front of goal.
Brighton vs Tromso – Brighton to Win & BTTS – No
The Conference League play-off second leg at the Amex, and Brighton hold a 0-0 advantage from the first leg in Norway. Now, that might sound like a precarious lead, but Brighton are a completely different proposition at home. They absolutely demolished Aston Villa 4-0 in their Premier League opener, and their defensive record has been impeccable – four consecutive clean sheets in all competitions against Roma, Bologna, Villa, and Tromso.
Tromso have been solid domestically, but they struggled to create chances in the first leg and managed just a handful of shots. They have covered the +2.25 Asian Handicap in 18 of their last 20 games, which shows they are tough to break down, but Brighton’s attacking quality with players like Joao Pedro and Mitoma should be too much over 90 minutes. Brighton to win at 1.14 is a given, and BTTS – No at 1.73 is the value play. If you want more juice, Brighton -2 at around 2.15 could be worth a look.
Ajax vs Sion – Ajax to Win & Over 2.5 Goals
Ajax take a 4-2 lead into the second leg at the Johan Cruyff Arena, and this tie is effectively done and dusted. But Ajax are not a side that takes their foot off the gas, especially at home. They are unbeaten in 12 matches, have scored 21 goals in their seven games this season, and their European home record is formidable – they beat Shelbourne 3-1 and Vojvodina 4-1 in previous qualifiers.
Sion need at least three goals to progress, which means they will have to push forward, and that leaves gaps at the back. Eight of Ajax’s last nine matches have seen both teams score and at least three goals in total. The first leg produced six goals, and while Sion have been scoring freely in Switzerland, Ajax’s quality should shine through. Over 2.5 goals at around 1.50 is the pick, and if you fancy a correct score, 3-1 to Ajax at around 11.00 is a nice small-stakes play.
Rangers vs Jablonec – Rangers Double Chance
This one is in the Czech Republic, with Rangers holding a slender 1-0 lead from the first leg at Ibrox. Now, Rangers have been poor this season – one point from two Premiership games and already dumped out of the Europa League – but they showed real resilience in that first leg. They had 57 percent possession, 13 shots, and five big chances, and they held on despite playing the final 16 minutes with ten men after Cameron Devlin’s red card.
Jablonec have made a perfect start to their domestic season with three straight wins, but Rangers only need to avoid defeat to progress. The double chance – draw or Rangers win – at around 1.55 is the smart play here. Jablonec will push for the goal they need, which should create space for Rangers on the counter, and Derek McInnes has built momentum with back-to-back wins. Over 2.5 goals at 1.82 also appeals given the open nature of the tie.
Signing Off
There you have it, five picks for your Thursday night. Chelsea and Fulham should both cruise through their Carabao Cup ties, Brighton should finally break down Tromso at the Amex, and Ajax vs Sion has goals written all over it. Rangers double chance in the Czech Republic is the insurance play that should see us through. Let us keep the winning run going after yesterday’s perfect three from four.
