Alright mate, here we go! Sunday is always a beauty for football and today is no exception. We have got the Community Shield down in Cardiff, a full slate of Championship openers, some Scottish League Cup action, and even a bit of La Liga to get stuck into. I have been up since six going through the form sheets, the team news, and all the gossip from the training grounds. Let us not waste any more time – here are my best bets for today.
Arsenal vs Manchester City – Both Teams to Score
The Community Shield is back, and this year it is in Cardiff at the Principality Stadium because Wembley has got some concert on. Arsenal are the Premier League champions and City won the FA Cup, so it is the traditional curtain-raiser. Now, I know some people treat this as a friendly, but trust me, neither Arteta nor Maresca will be treating it that way. Arteta has come out and said he wants the best version of Arsenal on the pitch, and Maresca has called it a trophy they are going to try their best to win. The stats back up an open game too – both teams have scored in four of the last five head-to-heads, and both sides have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches overall. Arsenal are missing Saliba and Timber at the back, which is a concern, while City are without Rodri after his back surgery. That means gaps in both midfields and both teams have the firepower to exploit them. Haaland, Saka, Foden, Martinelli – these lads do not do 0-0 draws. BTTS at around 1.60 is a solid play, and if you fancy a bit more value, over 2.5 goals at a similar price looks good too.
Burnley vs West Ham – West Ham to Win
This is a massive Championship opener at Turf Moor between two sides who got relegated from the Premier League last season. Burnley have been absolutely dreadful in pre-season – they failed to win any of their friendlies and needed penalties to beat Notts County in the Carabao Cup. They have not won a match inside 90 minutes in 20 attempts, which is staggering. West Ham, by contrast, are unbeaten in their last six across all competitions, they beat Portsmouth 3-1 in the Cup, and they have kept hold of Jarrod Bowen who is still their main man. The Hammers have won three of the last four meetings between these two, including a 2-0 win at Turf Moor back in February. Burnley have lost 15 of their last 28 against West Ham, and the Clarets just do not look like they have the fight or the quality right now. West Ham to win at around 2.10 is the pick for me. If you want a bit of insurance, BTTS at 1.62 also appeals because Burnley will be desperate and West Ham’s defence is not exactly airtight.
Watford vs Southampton – Southampton to Win
The Saints travel to Vicarage Road and I am backing them all day long. Southampton have won eight of their last ten matches, they are unbeaten in their last nine away games, and they have won four consecutive road trips. Watford, on the other hand, have lost their last five games and seven of their last ten. The Hornets finished 16th in the Championship last season and got hammered 4-0 by Coventry on the final day. Southampton finished fourth with 80 points and would have been in the play-offs if not for that Spygate nonsense. The Saints have won six of the last ten meetings between these two, and they look a class above. Cyle Larin has six goals in his last ten games, and the Saints are averaging 2.4 goals per match in that period. Southampton to win at around 1.96 is cracking value. If you are building an acca, this is your anchor.
Racing Santander vs Villarreal – Racing Santander +0.25 Asian Handicap
This La Liga clash is where I see the bookies getting it wrong. Villarreal are favorites at 2.16, but Racing have been absolutely flying at home. They have won five straight at El Sardinero, scoring an average of three goals per game in their last ten home matches. Villarreal, meanwhile, have failed to win in their last three away games, with four draws, four losses, and just two wins in their last ten on the road. Racing beat Villarreal 2-1 the last time they met at this ground, and they are coming off a 4-1 win over Cadiz. The Asian Handicap +0.25 at 1.94 gives you half your stake back if it is a draw and a full win if Racing pull it off. That is value in my book. Asier Villalibre has scored five goals in his last four home games, so anytime goalscorer at 4.20 is a fun small-stakes play too.
Espanyol vs Levante – Levante +0.5 Asian Handicap
Another La Liga clash, and again I am siding with the underdogs on the Asian Handicap. Espanyol are favorites at 2.04, but their home form is shocking – five defeats in their last ten at the RCDE Stadium, averaging just 0.8 goals per game. Levante have covered the +0.5 line in seven of their last ten games and 12 of their last 20. Espanyol have failed to cover the -0.5 line in nine of their last ten home games and 18 of their last 20 overall. That tells you everything you need to know. Levante +0.5 at 1.81 means you win if they draw or win, and given Espanyol’s struggles in front of their own fans, that looks a smart bet. Under 2.5 goals at 1.63 also makes appeal because Espanyol’s games have been low-scoring and Levante are solid enough at the back.
Hearts vs Inverness CT – Hearts to Win & Over 2.5 Goals
Scottish League Cup action now, and Hearts at Tynecastle should be far too strong for Championship side Inverness. Hearts have won their last six competitive home games against Inverness, five of those without conceding. They are unbeaten in their last eight home domestic fixtures, and they thumped Dundee United 4-0 last weekend. Inverness have failed to score in their last two games and lost six of their last seven against Hearts. The Jambos have seen over 2.5 goals in ten of their last 13 competitive matches, and they have won four of their last five League Cup ties with at least three goals in all four wins. Hearts to win and over 2.5 at around 1.95 is a banker for me. A 3-0 correct score at 10.00 is worth a small punt too.
Hibernian vs Partick Thistle – Hibernian to Win & Over 2.5 Goals
Staying in Scotland, Hibernian host Partick at Easter Road and this should be straightforward. Hibernian have won seven of their last 15 games and are heavy favorites at 1.48. Partick have won just five of their last 15 and are 6.50 outsiders. Hibernian’s last ten home games have seen over 2.5 goals in 67 percent of them, and Partick’s away games have been open too. The head-to-head shows Hibernian winning the last two meetings, and they have the quality to see off a Partick side who are struggling for consistency. Hibernian to win at 1.48 is short but solid for an acca, and over 2.5 at around 1.70 is the value play.
Rangers vs St Mirren – St Mirren to Win
Now this is my upset special for the day, and I am not joking. Rangers are in absolute turmoil. Derek McInnes has not won a single competitive match since taking over, they are already out of the Europa League after drawing 1-1 with Jagiellonia at Ibrox midweek, and the fans are turning on the team. They got booed off the pitch on Thursday night. St Mirren, meanwhile, are the defending League Cup champions, they have won eight of their last nine matches, and they are second in the Premiership with a 100 percent record. They beat Rangers 2-0 at Ibrox last season and drew 2-2 there the season before. The model I trust gives St Mirren a genuine chance here, and at 5/1 or 6.00, that is massive value. Even if you do not fancy the outright, BTTS at evens is a solid play because Rangers’ defence has been shambolic. But I am going for the upset. St Mirren to win.
Final Thoughts
There you have it, eight picks for your Sunday. The standouts for me are West Ham to win at Turf Moor, Southampton at Vicarage Road, and St Mirren to pull off a shock at Ibrox. The Community Shield should be an open, entertaining game so BTTS is the way to play it. As always, do not go lumping your whole bankroll on one bet. Split it up, play the singles and the doubles, and remember that even the best research does not guarantee a winner. But if you stick to the process and trust the numbers, the profits come over time. Good luck today, enjoy the football, and I will be back tomorrow with more picks.
