What a Sunday that was, lads! Five out of six tips landed and I hope you all had a few quid in your pockets by the end of the night. Brighton absolutely dismantled Aston Villa 4-0 which made the over 2.5 an absolute stroll, Manchester City edged Bournemouth 2-1 to keep both the win and the over alive, and Newcastle’s 2-2 draw with Liverpool meant the +0.5 Asian Handicap came in comfortably. The only one that let us down was the under in Spain, but you cannot win them all and five from six is a cracking return. Let us keep the momentum going today.
Fulham vs Chelsea – Over 2.5 Goals
The West London derby at Craven Cottage is the pick of the Monday night action. Fulham have taken two wins from their last three at home, while Chelsea have lost three of their last six matches and have been shipping goals – they have conceded in all of their last 16 league matches. Chelsea are unbeaten in 34 of their last 38 against Fulham in the Premier League, but this Fulham side under Marco Silva knows how to score at home. Both teams have found the net in 67 percent of Chelsea’s recent games, and Fulham have scored in three of their last six. Looking at the way both sides set up, over 2.5 goals at around 1.80 looks a smart play in a derby where neither team will sit back.
Bologna vs Lazio – Bologna Double Chance
New managers at both clubs here – Domenico Tedesco takes charge of Bologna and Gennaro Gattuso is in the Lazio dugout. But Gattuso’s start could not have been worse – Lazio got dumped out of the Coppa Italia 2-0 at home to Serie B side Mantova, which the manager himself called “a punch in the face.” They have lost three of their last five and are missing key players like Mario Gila and Ivan Provedel. Bologna, meanwhile, have added Roberto Piccoli and Artem Dovbyk on loan and have looked decent in pre-season. The numbers give Bologna a 38 percent win probability and the draw at 27 percent, making the double chance at around 1.30 a solid banker. If you want more value, the home win at 2.15 is worth a punt given Lazio’s shocking start.
Roma vs Fiorentina – Roma to Win
The Derby of Central Italy at the Stadio Olimpico, and Roma look in fine form. They have won five of their last six matches, including a 4-0 demolition of Fiorentina in this fixture last season. Fiorentina have drawn four of their last six games and have struggled to turn stalemates into wins. Roma have won 30 of the last 54 head-to-heads against Fiorentina, and their home record is formidable – 12 games unbeaten at the Olimpico. Looking at the form and the quality on show, a 2-1 Roma win feels about right, and at around 1.75 the home win is a strong play. For a correct score, 2-1 at 8.00 or 3-0 at 11.00 are worth small stakes.
Osasuna vs Levante – Osasuna to Win
Osasuna host Levante at El Sadar, and the home side have had extra preparation time after their opener against Celta Vigo was postponed. Levante got battered 3-0 by Espanyol last weekend and managed just four shots in a one-sided defeat. They lost 11 of their 19 away games last season, including a 2-0 defeat at this ground. Osasuna have won three of their last four home matches against Levante and are unbeaten in 14 of their last 19 at El Sadar. At around 1.88, Osasuna to win is the pick. Under 2.5 at 1.60 also appeals because Levante’s away games tend to be low-scoring.
Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna – Deportivo +0.25 Asian Handicap
This La Liga clash at La Rosaleda is where I see value. Malaga are newly promoted and lost their opener 2-0 away to Atletico Madrid, managing just one shot on target. Deportivo drew 1-1 with Elche in their opener and have been solid on the road – unbeaten in their last seven away games, with six wins, three draws, and just one defeat in their last ten on the road. Deportivo have covered the +0.25 line in 17 of their last 20 games and nine of their last ten. Malaga have failed to cover the -0.25 line in four of their last five at home. At 1.72, Deportivo +0.25 is a cracking bet – you win if they draw or win, and even a one-goal Malaga win only loses half your stake.
Brondby vs Silkeborg – Silkeborg +1.5 Asian Handicap
Danish Superliga action now, and Brondby are heavy favorites at 1.38 after winning their last three league games. But here is the thing – Brondby have failed to cover the -1.5 line in 18 of their last 20 games, nine of their last ten at home, and five consecutive home matches. Silkeborg, meanwhile, have covered the +1.5 line in 12 of their last 17 away games and four of their last five on the road. Brondby’s last ten home games have averaged just 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded – they do not blow teams away. Silkeborg +1.5 at 1.79 is the value play here. Looking at the recent form, a 1-1 draw feels likely, so the handicap should land comfortably.
Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia – Gil Vicente to Win
Finishing up in Portugal, and this looks straightforward. Gil Vicente won their opener 1-0 at home to Rio Ave and have won six of their last ten at the Estadio Cidade de Barcelos. Casa Pia have lost both of their opening two matches, including a humiliating 7-0 home defeat to Benfica where they did not manage a single shot on goal. They have lost seven of their last ten away games, conceding an average of 1.80 goals per match. Gil Vicente beat Casa Pia 2-1 at this ground last season and have dominated the recent head-to-head. At 1.61, Gil Vicente to win is a solid accumulator leg. Under 2.5 at 1.52 also appeals because Casa Pia’s attack is non-existent right now.
Over to You
There you have it, seven picks for your Monday. The standouts for me are Deportivo +0.25 in Spain and Silkeborg +1.5 in Denmark – both are spots where the bookies have massively overrated the home favorites. Osasuna and Gil Vicente look like straightforward home wins, and the over in the Fulham-Chelsea derby should deliver some entertainment. Let us keep the hot streak going after yesterday’s five winners. As always, stake smart, do not chase, and enjoy the football. I will be back tomorrow with more.
