Right then, lads – let us be honest about yesterday. We went three from five on the main picks, which is a solid return but not the clean sweep I might have got carried away about in previous posts. Fulham did the business with a 3-0 win over Wimbledon, Brighton absolutely demolished Tromso 4-0 at the Amex, and Ajax served up an eight-goal thriller beating Sion 5-3. But Chelsea only managed a 2-0 win against Luton, which meant the over 2.5 let us down, and Rangers got dumped out of Europe after losing 1-0 to Jablonec, which killed the double chance. Three from five keeps us in profit, but I will make sure to keep the intros accurate going forward. Let us see what Friday has in store.
Crystal Palace vs Manchester City – Both Teams to Score
The Friday night game at Selhurst Park is where I see value. City are favorites at 1.68 and rightly so – they have won six of the last nine meetings between these two and are unbeaten in eight straight head-to-heads at this ground. But Palace are no pushovers at home. They hit the woodwork against Everton on the opening weekend and finished that game with 1.96 xG, which shows they are creating chances. City have not kept a clean sheet in their first two competitive games this season, and they looked vulnerable in transition against Bournemouth. Palace have scored in six of their last ten home games, and with players like Mateta and Sarr they carry real threat. BTTS at 1.65 is the play here. If you want a correct score, 1-1 at 7.00 looks a nice price given how tight these games can be at Selhurst Park.
Lille vs PSG – Both Teams to Score
The champions travel to the Decathlon Arena, and this fixture is always good for goals. PSG have scored at least three goals in seven of their last nine meetings with Lille, and BTTS has landed in nine of the last ten head-to-heads between these two. Lille made a winning start with a 2-0 victory at Angers, while PSG were held to a 2-2 draw by Rennes after coming from two goals down. PSG are missing Barcola, Mendes, Dembele, and Mbaye through injury, but they still have enough firepower to find the net. Lille have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches, and PSG have conceded in four of their last five too. At 1.72, both teams to score is a cracking bet in a game that should see chances at both ends.
Racing Santander vs Elche – Racing Santander to Win
Over in Spain, Racing host Elche at El Sardinero and the home side look strong. Racing have won eight of their last ten home games, scoring an average of 2.80 goals per match. Elche, meanwhile, have lost seven of their last ten away games and are struggling near the bottom of the table with just one point from two games. Racing beat Elche 2-0 at this ground last season and have won two of the last three head-to-heads here. Elche have failed to win in four straight away games, and their defence has been leaky, conceding two goals per game on the road. Racing at around 2.14 is value given their home dominance. Under 2.5 at 1.98 also makes appeal because Elche’s away games tend to be low-scoring.
Alaves vs Villarreal – Alaves +0.25 Asian Handicap
This La Liga clash at Mendizorrotza is where I disagree with the bookies. Villarreal are favorites, but their away form is shocking – they have failed to cover the -0.25 line in eight of their last ten road games and 13 of their last 20. Alaves, meanwhile, have covered the +0.25 line in four of their last five games and seven of their last ten. Alaves have made a cracking start to the season with four points from two games, including a 3-0 win over Getafe at home. Villarreal have drawn both of their opening games 2-2, and their defence is all over the place, conceding four goals in two matches. Alaves +0.25 at 1.90 means you win if they draw or win, and even a one-goal Villarreal win only loses half your stake. That is smart betting.
Signing Off
There you have it, four picks for your Friday night. BTTS in both the Palace and Lille games should deliver, Racing looks solid at home, and Alaves with the quarter-goal start is the value play of the day. I will be back tomorrow with the weekend picks.
