Hi! Another solid Saturday in the books with three winners from four picks. Nottingham Forest did us proud at Anfield, holding Liverpool to a 2-2 draw, which meant the +1 Asian Handicap landed comfortably. Newcastle absolutely battered Tottenham 2-0 at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, so the +0.25 was never in doubt. And Hull nicked a 1-0 win at Coventry, which kept the under 2.5 alive. The only one that let us down was Bournemouth failing to beat Everton. They drew 1-1 after Tarkowski scored a late equaliser for the Toffees. But three from four keeps us well in profit, and the form guide is looking tasty. Let us see what Sunday has in store.
Chelsea vs Brighton – Both Teams to Score
The big game at Stamford Bridge, and I am expecting goals. Chelsea have started the season well under Xabi Alonso with back-to-back wins, including a 3-2 thriller at Fulham and a 2-0 Cup win over Luton. Joao Pedro has been in red-hot form, scoring after just 31 seconds against Fulham, and Morgan Rogers and Cole Palmer look dangerous.
But Brighton are no pushovers. They absolutely demolished Aston Villa 4-0 on the opening weekend and followed that up with a 4-0 Conference League win over Tromso. They have won the last four head-to-heads against Chelsea, including a 3-1 win at Stamford Bridge last season. Jack Hinshelwood scored twice against Villa, and the Seagulls are flying. Chelsea’s defence has been leaky – they have conceded in all of their last 16 league matches – and Brighton’s attack will exploit that. BTTS at around 1.58 is the play. If you want more value, over 2.5 goals at 1.69 also looks good given the scoring form both sides bring into this one.
Real Madrid vs Malaga – Malaga +2.5 Asian Handicap
Real Madrid are heavy favorites at 1.09 and rightly so – they have won their first two La Liga games, including a 4-1 demolition of Real Sociedad where Kylian Mbappe bagged a hat-trick. But here is the thing – Real have failed to cover the -2.5 line in 9 of their last 10 games and 17 of their last 20. Malaga, meanwhile, have covered the +2.5 line in 20 consecutive games. That is a staggering stat. Malaga drew 1-1 with Deportivo in their opener, and while they are newly promoted, they know how to keep games close. At 1.80, Malaga +2.5 is the value bet of the day. Even if Real win 3-1, you get your money back. That is smart betting.
Napoli vs Como – Napoli to Win
Napoli host Como at the Diego Armando Maradona, and this looks straightforward. Napoli made a winning start with a 2-0 victory at Genoa under new boss Massimiliano Allegri, and they have won their last 10 home openers in Serie A. Como, meanwhile, drew 1-1 with Udinese in their opener and have failed to keep a clean sheet in eight of their last nine games across all competitions. Napoli have scored two or more goals in four of their last five games, and their home record against Como is strong. At around 2.45, Napoli to win is a solid play. If you want a bit more juice, over 2.5 goals at 2.30 could land given Como’s defensive frailties.
Cagliari vs Inter Milan – Inter to Win
Inter travel to Sardinia and should have too much class for Cagliari. The Nerazzurri have won their last six away games against Cagliari and have outplayed them by at least two goals in their last five trips to the Sardegna Arena. Inter are unbeaten in 35 of their last 40 league games against Cagliari and have scored in all of their last 22 meetings. Cagliari have made a decent start with three straight wins, but Inter are a different level entirely. At around 1.65, Inter to win is a banker for your accumulator. If you want value, Inter -1 Asian Handicap at 2.20 is worth a look.
Freiburg vs Werder Bremen – Freiburg to Win
The Bundesliga opener at the Europa-Park Stadion and Freiburg look strong. They finished seventh last season and have started this campaign brilliantly, beating RB Leipzig 4-1 at home and hammering Motherwell 7-2 on aggregate in the Conference League qualifiers. Igor Matanovic has scored three goals in three games and looks sharp.
Werder Bremen, meanwhile, narrowly avoided relegation last season, finishing 15th. They lost their opener 2-0 to Borussia Dortmund and have scored one or fewer goals in 17 of their last 22 competitive games. Freiburg have won four successive meetings between these two and seven of the last ten head-to-heads. At 1.93, Freiburg to win is the pick. If you fancy a correct score, 2-1 to Freiburg at 7.00 looks a nice price.
Augsburg vs Schalke – Augsburg to Win
Finishing up in Germany, Augsburg host Schalke in what should be a tight affair. Augsburg have been solid in pre-season, winning four of their six friendlies, and they have home advantage. Schalke are newly promoted and struggled in their opening fixtures. Augsburg’s home form is decent – they have won three of their last five at the WWK Arena – and Schalke’s away record in the 2. Bundesliga was patchy at best. Augsburg to win at around 1.85 is a solid play to round off the day.
That is Your Lot
Right then, six picks for your Sunday. The standouts for me are Malaga +2.5 against Real Madrid. That is where the bookies have got it badly wrong – and BTTS in the Chelsea vs Brighton game, which should be a cracker. Napoli and Inter both look like solid home and away wins respectively, and Freiburg should see off a struggling Werder Bremen side. Let us keep the winning momentum going after yesterday’s three from four. I will see you back here tomorrow.
