Daily Football Picks – Wednesday, August 12, 2026

Right then, Wednesday’s card is a beauty. We’ve got the UEFA Super Cup in Salzburg, Copa Libertadores knockouts kicking off in Brazil, and some Conference League qualifiers that are basically free money if you know where to look. I’ve spent the morning combing through SportyTrader, Free Super Tips, Betalyst, Oddstake, and the rest of the usual suspects, plus digging into the team news myself. Here’s where the value is today.

Pick 1: Both Teams To Score – PSG vs Aston Villa

The UEFA Super Cup is the headline act, and while PSG are rightful favorites as Champions League winners, this fixture has “goals at both ends” written all over it. Aston Villa come into this off the back of a stunning Europa League triumph, and Unai Emery knows exactly how to set up a side for a one-off cup final. The last time these two met in a competitive two-legged affair, back in the 2024/25 Champions League quarter-finals, the tie finished 5-4 on aggregate. Both teams have scored in Aston Villa’s last five pre-season friendlies, and PSG saw goals at both ends in five of their final seven games last term. Ollie Watkins ended last season in red-hot form, scoring five in his final three appearances to take his tally to 16 league goals, and he should lead the line here. PSG’s attack is devastating on the flanks with Kvaratskhelia, but their backline has looked shaky in pre-season. At around evens, BTTS is the standout bet for the Super Cup.

Pick 2: Under 2.5 Goals – PSG vs Aston Villa

Now hear me out, because this might seem contradictory after backing BTTS, but the Super Cup has a funny habit of being tighter than people expect. Eight of the last 11 Super Cups have been level after 90 minutes, and with both managers likely to rotate and protect key players so close to the start of the domestic season, this could be a cagey affair. PSG in particular welcomed back many players late into pre-season after the World Cup, so Luis Enrique might not go full strength from the off. Villa are missing Amadou Onana in midfield, which could make them more conservative. If you want to play both angles, BTTS and Under 3.5 in a combo is a smart way to go, but the under 2.5 line at around 1.90 holds serious value based on recent Super Cup history.

Pick 3: Palmeiras to Win – Palmeiras vs Cerro Porteno

Down to South America for the Copa Libertadores Round of 16, and Palmeiras at home to Cerro Porteno looks like a banker. This is a single-elimination tie at the Allianz Parque, and Palmeiras are priced at 1.28 for good reason. They’ve won seven of the last nine meetings between these two sides, and their home form in this competition is typically ruthless. Cerro Porteno have been poor lately, losing to Sportivo Ameliano and 2 de Mayo in recent weeks, which are results that simply don’t cut it at this level. Palmeiras dispatched Vitoria 4-0 and Fortaleza 3-0 in their last two home outings, and with Jose Manuel Lopez leading the line, I expect them to advance comfortably. This is accumulator material.

Pick 4: Flamengo Asian Handicap 0.0 – Cruzeiro vs Flamengo

The other big Brazilian clash sees defending champions Flamengo travel to Mineirao to face Cruzeiro in the first leg of their Round of 16 tie. Flamengo are the form side here by some distance. They won Group A with five wins and a draw, scoring 14 and conceding just two. In Serie A, they sit second, just behind Palmeiras, while Cruzeiro are down in 14th with just one win in their last four league matches. The head-to-head record heavily favors Flamengo too – they’ve won six of the last nine meetings. The Asian Handicap 0.0 line at 1.81 is a gift. Even if it ends level, you get your stake back, and Flamengo have the quality to take a vital away lead back to the Maracana.

Pick 5: FC Copenhagen to Win to Nil – FC Copenhagen vs Debrecen

Over to the Conference League qualifiers, and Copenhagen are basically already through after a 3-0 demolition in Hungary. They limited Debrecen to just 0.36 expected goals in the first leg and have scored at least three goals in four of their last five fixtures. At home in the Parken, against a side that barely troubled them away, this should be a stroll. Debrecen have nothing to play for really, and Copenhagen will want to put on a show for their fans. The win to nil at around 1.40 is perfect for an acca leg.

Pick 6: Both Teams To Score – Rapid Vienna vs Paide

Rapid Vienna carry a 4-1 lead from the first leg in Estonia, so the tie is done and dusted, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t betting value. Rapid have seen 24 goals scored in their first six games this season, with both teams scoring in four of those matches. Paide have found the net in their last 14 games across all competitions, so they’re not going to shut up shop completely even with the tie gone. Rapid might rotate a few bodies but their second string is still strong enough to create chances, while Paide will fancy a consolation goal. BTTS at around 1.50 is a solid pick.

Pick 7: Arsenal to Win – Arsenal vs Como

Arsenal wrap up their pre-season with a friendly against Serie A newcomers Como at the Emirates. Yes, it’s a friendly, but Mikel Arteta will want to send the fans home happy before the Premier League opener. The Gunners fell to a 3-2 defeat against Dortmund in the Emirates Cup, which was a bit of a shock, and they’ll be keen to avoid back-to-back home losses in pre-season. Bruno Guimaraes could make his debut off the bench after his big-money move from Newcastle, and with David Raya back between the sticks after his World Cup triumph with Spain, Arsenal should have too much quality. Como, managed by Cesc Fabregas, will be organized but they’re a newly-promoted Italian side facing one of Europe’s best. Arsenal at around 1.20 is a safe single if you’re building a multiple.

Today’s Acca Builder

For the acca hunters, here’s a four-fold that pays around 2.80:

• Palmeiras to Win (1.28)
• FC Copenhagen to Win to Nil (1.40)
• Flamengo Asian Handicap 0.0 (1.81)
• Arsenal to Win (1.20)

If you want a bit more spice, swap the Arsenal leg for BTTS in the Super Cup and you’ve got a tasty parlay around the 4.00 mark.

Final Thoughts

Wednesday is all about picking your spots. The Super Cup is notoriously tricky because of the preseason factor, which is why I’m staying away from the outright winner market and focusing on goals. The Copa Libertadores is where the real action is, and Flamengo look far too strong for a Cruzeiro side that’s struggling domestically. Palmeiras at home should be a formality. In the qualifiers, Copenhagen and Rapid offer different angles – one for a clean sheet, the other for goals. As always, check the lineups before kickoff, especially for the Super Cup and the Arsenal friendly, but the research is solid and the numbers back up every pick. Good luck out there, and may your bets be green.