Chris here. For most punters a Monday after a full weekend is a dead day. For me it is the opposite. When there are six or seven sensible fixtures on the board instead of seventy, the bookmaker has nowhere to hide, and I have time to go through every lineup, every injury and every transfer from the last 48 hours. I spent this morning working through a dozen or so tipping sites, from SportyTrader and Footy Accumulators to MightyTips, Betshoot, OLBG, ratingbet and a few others. What follows is my own selection. Not a copy and paste of somebody else’s coupon, but what I actually intend to back after reading all of it.
Two housekeeping notes first. There is no Ekstraklasa today. The third round closed on Sunday with Lech against Piast, and the Raków – Zagłębie fixture has been postponed. Champions League and Europa League qualifying does not restart until tomorrow, so today belongs to Scandinavia, Portugal, Ukraine and the English League Cup. Perfect material for a calm, considered coupon.
Polissya Zhytomyr – FC Kharkiv, 14:30 CEST (Ukrainian Premier League)
We start early, and with a game most punters will skip. That is usually a sign there is something to be had. Polissya opened their league campaign with a 2-1 win over Chornomorets, coming from behind after Robakidze’s opener, and more importantly they are now out of Europe following their two-legged tie with Copenhagen. It ended their continental run, but it also cleared their calendar and let them focus purely on the league.
The key here, though, is the head to head record. These sides have met six times: two Polissya wins and four draws, three of which finished goalless. Kharkiv have never scored against Zhytomyr in any of those meetings. Both teams play pragmatic football. The hosts will have the ball, the visitors will sit deep and look to break. At the Tsentralnyi Stadium, a ground holding fewer than six thousand, this smells far more like a grinding 1-0 than a shootout.
My pick: under 2.5 goals. For the braver among you: Polissya to win to nil.
Sirius – Brommapojkarna, 19:00 CEST (Allsvenskan)
The story of the Swedish season is called IK Sirius. Andreas Engelmark’s side sit fourteen points clear of second-placed Hammarby after fifteen rounds and have not lost a single match since an 8-2 hammering by Djurgården last September. They won 2-0 away at Halmstad in the last round. This is no longer a hot streak or a fluke. They are simply the best team in the division.
Brommapojkarna, meanwhile, have not won in six rounds, sit four points above the relegation playoff spot and are losing Sion Oppong to Toulouse. On top of that Mads Christian Hansen, their most productive attacking midfielder this season, is suspended. A blunted attack, a leaky defence and a trip to Uppsala.
The problem is that the odds on Sirius sit around 1.30 and there is no value there whatsoever. So I go looking for something better and I find it in the first half numbers: Sirius have won the opening 45 in 12 of their last 13 home games and in 8 of their last 9 league matches. Their average first half output is 1.4 scored against 0.5 conceded.
My pick: Sirius to win the first half, around 1.75.
Västerås SK – Djurgården, 19:00 CEST (Allsvenskan)
A rematch just a week on. Djurgården dismantled Västerås 6-0 at the 3Arena in the previous round, and that is precisely why you need to be careful here. The market still has that scoreline fresh in mind, and games like that do not get repeated to order.
The case for the visitors is genuinely strong, though. Four consecutive clean sheets, fourteen goals in their last five outings, four wins and a draw in that run, and on the road four wins from six with only a single defeat. Kristian Lien has eleven goals in fourteen appearances and is in the form of his life. The hosts will play in front of a sold out crowd of roughly 8,800 and will want to put things right, but they are without Frédéric Nsabiyumva and Jonathan Ring, while Ismet Lushaku is a serious doubt after picking up a knock in the first meeting.
Watch the odds. Djurgården hover around 1.75 to 1.77 and in my view that is the break-even line. From 1.80 upwards I take it without hesitation. Below 1.70 I leave it alone and look elsewhere.
My pick: Djurgården to win, but only at 1.78 or bigger.
Silkeborg – OB Odense, 19:00 CEST (Danish Superliga)
A goals game, and one of the cleanest setups on the whole card. Silkeborg have one point from two rounds, sit bottom of the table, lost 1-3 at home to FC Copenhagen and spent the summer losing head coach Kent Nielsen, goalkeeper Nicolai Larsen and striker Tonni Adamsen. The defence is leaking badly: 2.33 goals conceded per game across their last six, with both teams scoring in 83 percent of them.
Odense come in off a 1-0 win over Sonderjyske, but in pre-season they shipped four against both Midtjylland and Bröndby. And here is the part that really matters: in each of the last four meetings between these two, both sides found the net, the average was 3.5 goals per game, and the two most recent league encounters both cleared 3.5.
I have seen the over 3.5 line tipped elsewhere today and I understand the logic, but for me that is reaching. I would rather take the safer route at a comparable price.
My pick: both teams to score. For the risk takers: over 3.5 goals.
Plymouth Argyle – Exeter City, approx. 21:00 CEST (Carabao Cup)
The Devon derby closes out the first round of the League Cup. Plymouth under Tom Cleverley went through pre-season unbeaten, five wins and a draw from six friendlies, and have not lost a competitive match since April. Exeter were relegated to League Two and managed just one win from four warm-up games.
On paper it is a formality, except that in derbies paper tends to be useless. Exeter did not lose either league meeting with Plymouth last season despite going down. On top of that Argyle have lost Lorent Tolaj to Bristol City, and record signing Michael Baidoo has picked up a hamstring problem. The last ten meetings between these clubs have averaged exactly three goals a game.
The odds on the hosts sit around 1.50, over 2.5 goals is roughly 1.53, and the combination of a Plymouth win with three or more goals goes at about 1.90. That third option tempts me, but in a cup opener where both managers will rotate and test new signings, I am sticking with the simpler play.
My pick: Plymouth to win. Aggressive alternative: Plymouth to win and over 2.5 goals.
Santa Clara – Nacional, 21:15 CEST (Liga Portugal)
The best value of the day. Santa Clara close out the opening round of the Portuguese season at home in the Azores, coming off an unbeaten pre-season with four wins from five friendlies and twelve goals scored. Petit has had his first full summer in charge, and he collected 19 points from the final 14 games of last season after taking over.
Nacional are a completely different story. One win from four friendlies, four defeats and a draw in their last five matches of the previous campaign and, most telling of all, just one win in their last thirteen away games in Liga Portugal. Add injuries at centre back, with Ivanildo Fernandes and Ulisses unavailable and José Gomes nursing a rib problem. The last meeting at São Miguel finished 2-0 to the hosts.
Odds around 1.83 on the better team, playing at home, with the healthier squad, against opponents travelling halfway across the Atlantic, is a straightforward call for me.
My pick: Santa Clara to win.
Chris’s coupon of the day
I am not stuffing everything into one giant acca, because that is the quickest route to disappointment. My suggestion is a treble at sensible odds of roughly 5.00:
- Santa Clara to win
- Silkeborg – OB: both teams to score
- Sirius to win the first half
Alongside that, two singles: Plymouth and Djurgården, both at no more than one percent of bank. Under 2.5 in Zhytomyr I treat as a separate, smaller bet for those who like an early kick-off.
What I am leaving alone today
I am staying away from every correct score market in the Carabao Cup. The first round of the League Cup is a lottery: rotation, trialists, new signings and players with no match rhythm yet. I am also passing on Sirius singles at 1.30 and on the so-called bankers at odds below 1.25 that I keep seeing on other people’s slates. At those odds one slip in ten wipes out a month of profit, and slip-ups in football happen a good deal more often than one in ten.
Good luck, and keep your staking disciplined. We do this for enjoyment, not to chase losses.
18+ only. Odds are indicative and may move before markets close. Always check confirmed lineups an hour before kick-off.
