Morning all! What a Friday night that was – a clean sweep, four winners from four picks, and I hope you all had a few beers on me after those results. Crystal Palace vs Manchester City served up a 4-1 thriller, which meant both teams to score landed before halftime. Lille and PSG treated us to a proper 2-2 draw in France, with PSG scoring twice in stoppage time to rescue a point. Racing Santander absolutely battered Elche 3-2 in a five-goal thriller at El Sardinero, and Alaves nicked a 1-0 win against Villarreal thanks to a Lucas Boye strike. Every single pick came in, and that is the kind of night that makes all the research worthwhile. Let us see if we can keep the perfect run going today.
Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest – Nottingham Forest +1 Asian Handicap
The early kick-off at Anfield, and I am going against the grain here. Liverpool are heavy favorites at around 1.33, but the -1 handicap is a trap in my opinion. Liverpool have failed to cover that -1 line in five consecutive games, eight of their last ten, and 16 of their last 20 overall. That is not a blip, that is a pattern. They drew 2-2 away to Newcastle on the opening weekend, and while they have quality in abundance with Isak, Gakpo, and Szoboszlai, they do not blow teams away at home.
Forest, meanwhile, have covered the +1 line in four of their last five away games and eight of their last ten overall. Yes, they lost their opener 1-0 to Leeds and got dumped out of the Cup by the same side, but Oliver Glasner knows how to set up a team to frustrate. The last time these two met at Anfield, Forest won 3-0. The +1 Asian Handicap at 1.97 means you win if Forest draw or win, and you get your money back if they lose by exactly one. That is cracking value, and I am all over it.
Bournemouth vs Everton – Bournemouth to Win
Bournemouth host Everton at the Vitality Stadium, and the Cherries look a solid bet at 2.05. Bournemouth were unlucky to lose 2-1 at Manchester City on the opening weekend. They led until the 84th minute and only conceded two late goals. They are unbeaten in their last nine at home and have won seven of the last ten meetings against Everton.
Everton, to their credit, started well with a 2-0 win over Crystal Palace and a 4-0 Cup demolition of Preston. But their away form is patchy – they have lost three of their last five on the road and tend to struggle against teams who press high. Bournemouth’s home record and the head-to-head dominance make this a straightforward pick. The Cherries at 2.05 is value in my book, and if you fancy a correct score, 2-1 to Bournemouth at 8.00 looks a nice price.
Tottenham vs Newcastle – Newcastle +0.25 Asian Handicap
The late game at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium is where I see the best value on the board. Spurs got absolutely battered 3-0 by Brentford on the opening weekend, and while they bounced back with a 5-1 Cup win over Charlton, that was Championship opposition. Their home form is dreadful – they have failed to cover the -0.25 line in nine of their last ten home games and 17 of their last 20 overall.
Newcastle, meanwhile, drew 2-2 with Liverpool in a cracking game at St James’ Park and beat West Brom 3-2 in the Cup. They are unbeaten in the last six against Tottenham, winning seven of the last ten head-to-heads, including a 2-1 win at this ground last season. The +0.25 Asian Handicap at 1.80 means half your stake goes on the draw and half on the win, so you profit if Newcastle avoid defeat. Given Spurs’ struggles and Newcastle’s confidence, that looks a smart bet. If you want bigger odds, Newcastle to win at 3.05 is worth a small punt too.
Coventry vs Hull – Under 2.5 Goals
Finishing up in the Midlands, this Championship clash should be a tight, cagey affair. Hull are buzzing after that shock 2-0 win over Manchester United in their opener, and their defence looked rock solid in that game. Coventry are still finding their feet under a new manager, and early season games between two well-matched sides tend to be low on goals. Both teams will be wary of making mistakes, and with neither side boasting a prolific attack, under 2.5 goals at around 1.75 is the sensible play. If you want a correct score, 1-1 at 6.00 is not the worst shout.
Over to You
Right then, four picks for your Saturday. Forest +1 at Anfield is the standout value bet – Liverpool just do not cover handicaps at the moment. Bournemouth at home is a solid play, Newcastle with the quarter-goal start against a struggling Spurs side is smart money, and the under in the Midlands derby looks a banker. Let us keep the hot streak going after yesterday’s perfect four from four. I will catch you tomorrow.
