Daily Football Tips – Thursday, 13 August 2026

Alright lads, here we go again. Another packed Thursday of European qualifiers and I’ve been burning the midnight oil going through the form, the team news, and every stat sheet I can get my hands on. If you have been following my picks for a while, you know I do not just throw darts at a board. I dig into the numbers, watch the trends, and find the spots where the bookies have got it wrong. Today is no different. We have got a full slate of Europa League and Conference League third qualifying round second legs, and there is serious value to be had if you know where to look.

Let me break down my best bets for today, with a bit of reasoning behind each one so you know I am not talking out of my backside.

Rangers vs Jagiellonia Bialystok – Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals

This is the big one for me today. Rangers trail 2-1 from the first leg in Poland and they need to go for it at Ibrox. Now, I have watched Rangers closely this season and let me tell you, their defence has been an absolute shambles. They have not kept a clean sheet in 11 competitive games running, and that is not a blip – that is a pattern. Jagiellonia, on the other hand, have been in cracking form, winning seven of their last ten, and they have scored in every single one of those matches. The Poles are dangerous on the break and Rangers will have to push forward, which leaves gaps at the back. The stats do not lie here: 11 of Rangers’ last 13 games have gone over 2.5 goals, and BTTS has landed in 16 of their last 20. At around 1.77 for BTTS and 1.65 for over 2.5, this is bread and butter stuff. I am backing both to score and the over. Rangers might get the job done on the night, but they will not keep a clean sheet.

Besiktas vs Hradec Kralove – Both Teams to Score: No

This one feels like a stone-cold banker to me. Besiktas hold a 1-0 lead from the first leg in Czechia, and they are rock solid at home. Vincenzo Italiano has got them organised at the back, and they have won all three of their Europa League qualifiers this season without conceding a single goal. Hradec Kralove, to their credit, are a decent side, but they failed to score in two of their last three matches and they could not find a way past Besiktas even when the Turks went down to ten men in the first leg. Besiktas have seen BTTS – No in seven of their last nine matches, and their defensive record at this stage of the competition is impeccable. At around 1.79, I am all over BTTS – No here. This could easily finish 1-0 or 2-0 to the hosts.

Hearts vs Benfica – Over 3.5 Goals

Now, I know what you are thinking. Benfica battered Hearts 6-1 in the first leg, so this tie is done and dusted. And you are right, it is. But that is exactly where the value lies. Hearts have nothing to lose at Tynecastle, and Benfica can afford to take their foot off the gas a bit, which often leads to open, chaotic games. Hearts have gone over 3.5 goals in each of their last two games, and Benfica have broken that threshold in each of their last four. The first leg had seven goals, and both sides have been averaging 5.5 goals per game across those respective periods. With the pressure off and both teams likely to rotate, this could turn into a bit of a basketball match. Over 3.5 goals at around 2.10 is a cracking price.

Motherwell vs HJK – Motherwell to Win

The tie is level at 1-1 after the first leg in Finland, and Motherwell have got home advantage at Fir Park. I like the Steelmen here. They are unbeaten in their last five across all competitions, winning three and drawing two, and they have been solid in Europe this season. HJK are no mugs – they are Finnish champions with European experience – but their away record is patchy, with two defeats in their last four on the road. Motherwell have scored freely at home in this competition, putting three past Vaduz and two past BATE in previous rounds. At around 7/10 or 1.70, Motherwell to win is a solid play. I think they get the job done in front of their own fans.

Pafos vs Salzburg – Salzburg to Win & BTTS – No

Salzburg are a machine in these early qualifying rounds. They have won their last five on the bounce, scoring 15 goals and conceding just two in the process. Pafos pulled off a miracle against Hajduk Split in the last round, coming back from 2-0 down to win 4-0 in extra time, but that took everything out of them. Salzburg’s pressing under Danny Rohl is relentless, and they have the quality to suffocate teams who are not used to that intensity. Pafos have lost three of their last five, and Salzburg have kept things tight at the back. I am backing Salzburg to win at around 2.25, and BTTS – No at 2.20 looks generous too. The Austrians should control this from start to finish.

Sion vs Noah – Sion to Win & Over 2.5 Goals

This Conference League tie is perfectly balanced at 2-2, which means both teams have got to go for it in Switzerland. Sion have been absolutely flying at home, winning their last three at the Stade de Tourbillon while averaging over three goals per game. Noah are on a ten-match unbeaten run, which is impressive, but they are missing the suspended Mambo and a few injured players, and their defence has leaked five goals in their last two matches. Sion have scored at least three in each of their last three home games, and with everything on the line, I expect another open contest. Sion to win at 1.41 is short but fair, and over 2.5 goals at 1.71 is the real value play here.

Gornik Zabrze vs Ferencvaros – Both Teams to Score

Ferencvaros hold a narrow 1-0 lead from the first leg, but Gornik are back on home soil and they will throw everything at this. The Polish side have scored in every home game this season, including against Fenerbahce in the Champions League qualifiers, and they need at least one goal to force extra time. Ferencvaros, meanwhile, have been involved in high-scoring games lately – four of their last five competitive matches have seen both teams score, and they have conceded in each of their three away matches this season. Gornik have also conceded in all six of their competitive games this term, so neither defence inspires confidence. BTTS at around 1.72 is a smart play in what should be an end-to-end affair.

CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv – CSKA Sofia to Win

CSKA Sofia have been in strong form, winning six of their last nine matches, and they have a 50 percent win rate in home Europa League games this season. Maccabi Tel Aviv, by contrast, have struggled on the road, losing nine of their last 15 away league matches and suffering defeats in 67 percent of their last six away outings in the Europa League. The Bulgarian side won the only previous meeting between these two, and with home advantage in a crucial qualifier, I fancy them to get the job done. CSKA Sofia to win is available at decent odds and looks a solid pick.

Ajax vs Shelbourne – Ajax to Win & Over 2.5 Goals

This one is pretty straightforward. Ajax won the first leg 3-1 and they are a class above Shelbourne in every department. The Irish side have lost four of their last six across all competitions, and while they have shown some fight at home in Europe, Ajax are a different animal entirely. The Amsterdam club have won their last two away fixtures and have perfect form in this competition. Shelbourne vs Ajax is a mismatch on paper, and the Dutch giants should cruise through. Ajax to win is a given, and over 2.5 goals at around 1.40 is almost too generous given Ajax’s attacking firepower.

Final Thoughts

There you have it, my best bets for Thursday 13 August. The key theme today is goals in the games where the ties are still alive, and defensive solidity in the games where one side holds a comfortable lead. Rangers vs Jagiellonia and Sion vs Noah are the two that really stand out for me in terms of value and entertainment. As always, manage your bankroll, do not chase losses, and remember that no bet is ever a guaranteed winner. But if you have done your homework like I have, you give yourself the best possible chance. Good luck out there, and I will be back with more picks soon.