Alright guys, no stress, we have got plenty of time and plenty of games to work with today. Saturday is always my favorite day of the week – the fixture list is absolutely loaded and there is value hiding in plain sight if you know where to look. I have been through the Championship, the 2. Bundesliga, the J League, and a few other spots, and I have found some cracking bets for us. Let us get straight into it.
Portsmouth vs QPR – Portsmouth to Win
This is my banker of the day. Portsmouth at Fratton Park against a QPR side that is absolutely falling apart. Let me give you the numbers because they are staggering: QPR have lost four Championship games in a row, they are winless in 13 of their last 15 away matches in all competitions, and their last three away games have all ended in defeat. Portsmouth, meanwhile, are unbeaten in seven of their last eight matches and have scored in ten consecutive games across all competitions. They have also won three of the last six head-to-heads against QPR, including a 2-1 win at Fratton Park back in February. QPR are missing players through injury and suspension, and their confidence must be on the floor. Portsmouth at around 2.15 is a gift in my book. If you want a bit more safety, Portsmouth -0.25 Asian Handicap at 1.93 gives you half your stake back if it is a draw. I am on the straight win though.
Kashima Antlers vs Nagoya Grampus – Kashima Antlers to Win
Jumping over to Japan for this one, and the form guide could not be clearer. Kashima have won nine of their last ten home games, 14 of their last 17 at the Kashima Soccer Stadium, and they have beaten Nagoya in the last two meetings between these sides. Nagoya, on the other hand, have lost four of their last five games and are on a three-match losing streak away from home. They got hammered 6-1 by Cerezo Osaka and 4-2 by Sanfrecce Hiroshima recently, so their defence is leaking goals for fun. Kashima to win at 1.79 is value all day long. The model I trust has this at 56 percent probability, which beats the implied odds comfortably. If you fancy a correct score, 2-0 to Kashima at 6.50 is not the worst shout either.
Norwich vs West Brom – West Brom +0.5 Asian Handicap
Now, I know Norwich are favorites here at 1.91, and Carrow Road is a tough place to go. But hear me out. West Brom +0.5 at 1.77 is the value play. Norwich have won six of their last ten at home, which sounds good, but West Brom have been solid on the road and the head-to-head is tighter than the odds suggest. West Brom have drawn three of their last six league matches, and they have enough about them to frustrate Norwich. The Asian Handicap gives us two results – a West Brom win or a draw – and at 1.77 that is a solid bit of insurance. Norwich tend to start seasons slowly, and West Brom have a habit of grinding out results. I will take the away team with the half-goal start every time at that price.
Middlesbrough vs Lincoln – Under 2.5 Goals
Middlesbrough are heavy favorites at 1.42, and rightly so – they are the bigger club with the better squad. But Lincoln are no pushovers. They have won five of their last six matches and will make life difficult for Boro. The key stat here is that Middlesbrough’s games have been low-scoring lately – under 2.5 has landed in five of their last six competitive matches, and Lincoln have been involved in tight affairs too. Boro will probably edge it 1-0 or 2-0, but I do not see a goal-fest. Under 2.5 at around 1.80 is where the smart money is. If you want a correct score, 2-0 to Middlesbrough at 7.00 is worth a small punt.
Greuther Furth vs Nurnberg – Both Teams to Score
This 2. Bundesliga derby is always a cracker, and today’s meeting should be no different. The head-to-head record shows both teams scoring in six of the last ten meetings, with an average of three goals per game. Nurnberg have scored in every single one of their last five outings, including a 10-0 friendly win and a 3-3 thriller against Hannover. Greuther Furth have been solid at home and have found the net consistently too. The model gives both teams a 75 percent plus chance of scoring, which makes BTTS at 1.54 an absolute steal. If you want to spice it up, over 2.5 goals at 1.67 also looks good given the attacking form both sides bring into this one.
Hertha Berlin vs Heidenheim – Over 2.5 Goals
Another 2. Bundesliga clash, and this one has goals written all over it. Heidenheim won their last game 4-3 against Osnabruck, and Hertha beat Bochum 1-0 in a tight affair, but their previous meeting was a 2-1 Hertha win in the DFB-Pokal. Heidenheim are averaging over two goals per game in their last ten league matches, and Hertha are not far behind at 1.2. The stats show over 2.5 landing in 67 percent of Hertha’s recent games and 83 percent of Heidenheim’s. At 1.65, over 2.5 is the play. Both teams to score at 1.45 is also tempting, but I prefer the over line for a bit more value.
Sheffield United vs Birmingham – Under 2.5 Goals
Bramall Lane hosts this Yorkshire vs Midlands clash, and I am expecting a tight, cagey affair. Sheffield United have been decent in pre-season with four wins and a draw in their last five, but they have kept things tight at the back. Birmingham have also won four of their last five, but three of those games finished with under 2.5 goals. Both teams have new managers, both are feeling each other out, and opening day nerves tend to produce low-scoring games. The last meeting between these two was a 2-1 Sheffield United win, but I think this one stays tighter. Under 2.5 at around 1.80 is my pick.
Bolton vs Preston – Bolton to Win
Bolton are back in the Championship after winning the League One play-offs, and they have been busy in the transfer market with eight new signings including Ryan Hardie and Kyliane Dong. Preston, meanwhile, lost Ben Whiteman to Wrexham and have not really strengthened enough. Bolton have the momentum of promotion, a packed home crowd at the Toughsheet Community Stadium, and the hunger to prove they belong at this level. Preston were mediocre last season, finishing 14th, and they needed penalties to beat Huddersfield in the Cup. Bolton at around 2.25 is decent value for a home win in a derby where form often goes out the window.
Final Thoughts
There you have it, eight picks to get stuck into this Saturday. The standouts for me are Portsmouth to win and Kashima Antlers to win – both are short odds, but they look like absolute bankers. West Brom +0.5 and under 2.5 in the Boro game are the value plays where the odds are in our favor. As always, do not go putting your mortgage on any single bet. Split your stake, manage your bankroll, and remember that even the best tipsters have losing days. But if you stick to the process and trust the research, the long-term profits come. Good luck today, enjoy the football, and I will catch you tomorrow with more picks.
