Morning guys! What a Saturday that was, eh? Hull City absolutely battered Manchester United 2-0 at the MKM Stadium, which was a proper shocker and a lovely result for anyone who had the +1.5 on the Tigers. Everton did the business against Crystal Palace with a 2-0 win, Ipswich edged Sunderland 2-1 in the promoted clash, and Leeds nicked a late 1-0 winner at Nottingham Forest thanks to a Stach strike in the 88th minute. But the pick of the bunch was Brentford absolutely dismantling Tottenham 3-0 at the Gtech – Lewis-Potter, Janelt, and Kayode all getting on the scoresheet. Over in Spain, Sevilla came from behind to beat Athletic Club 3-1 at San Mames, Real Madrid edged Espanyol 2-1 at the RCDE, and Valencia and Celta played out a drab 0-0. Hope you had a few winners in there. Now let us see what Sunday has in store.
Brighton vs Aston Villa – Over 2.5 Goals
The early kick-off at the Amex and I am expecting goals. Aston Villa come into this with four wins in their last six matches and have been scoring freely. Brighton have won two of their last three at home, but their defence has been leaky – they have conceded in five of their last six games. Villa have scored 16 goals in their last six matches, averaging 2.67 per game, while Brighton have managed seven in the same period. The head-to-head favors Villa too – they have won four of the last six meetings between these two. But Brighton at home are always dangerous, and with both sides missing key defensive players, this should be an open game. Over 2.5 goals is the fair prediction, and at odds around 1.75 it looks a solid play.
Manchester City vs Bournemouth – Manchester City to Win & Over 2.5 Goals
City at the Etihad against Bournemouth should be straightforward. City have won two of their last three home games, and when these two meet, goals are usually plentiful – over 2.5 has landed in four of the last six head-to-heads. Bournemouth have three wins in their previous six, but they are missing players like Kroupi and Akinmboni through injury. City are heavy favorites at around 1.20, so the value is in the over 2.5 at 1.40 or City to win to nil. I predict a 3-0 City win, and I would not argue with that. This is a banker for your accumulator.
Newcastle vs Liverpool – Newcastle +0.5 Asian Handicap
The big one at St James’ Park, and I am siding with the hosts. Liverpool are favorites at 1.86, but both teams have been absolutely gutted by transfers this summer. Newcastle lost Bruno Guimaraes, Sandro Tonali, and Anthony Gordon, while Liverpool said goodbye to Mohamed Salah, Ibrahima Konate, Curtis Jones, and Andy Robertson. Both have new managers too – Matthias Jaissle at Newcastle and Andoni Iraola at Liverpool. Liverpool have failed to cover the -0.5 line in four consecutive games and seven of their last ten. Newcastle, meanwhile, have covered the +0.5 line in 12 of their last 19 home games. The head-to-head is dominated by Liverpool – eight wins in the last ten – but this is a different Liverpool now. Newcastle +0.5 at 1.96 is the value play. You win if they draw or win, and given the upheaval at both clubs, a draw looks likely. I also go for a 1-1 at 7.00 odds, which is worth a small punt.
Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal – Atletico Madrid to Win
Atleti host Villarreal at the Metropolitano, and Simeone’s side look strong. They opened their La Liga campaign with a 2-0 win over Malaga, with Kang-In Lee and Alejandro Baena on the scoresheet. Villarreal could only manage a 2-2 draw at Racing Santander in their opener. Atleti have won 16 of their last 20 home games and seven of their last ten at the Metropolitano. Villarreal are winless in their last four away games, with four draws, four losses, and just two wins in their last ten on the road. The last meeting at the Metropolitano ended 2-0 to Atleti, and the head-to-head at this ground shows four Atleti wins, three draws, and just one Villarreal success in the last eight. At 1.86, Atletico to win is a solid play. If you want to be cautious, under 2.5 goals at 1.95 also appeals – one of my models predicts 1-0.
Elche vs Barcelona – Barcelona to Win
Barcelona travel to the Estadio Martinez Valero, and while Elche will make it tough, the Catalans should have too much class. Barcelona won their last game 3-1 against Real Betis and have quality throughout the squad. Elche drew 1-1 with Deportivo in their opener and have been inconsistent, with just one win in their last six matches. Barcelona are heavy favorites, and while the odds will be short, they are a reliable accumulator leg. If you want value, Barcelona -1 Asian Handicap could be worth a look, but the straight win is the safest money.
Getafe vs Racing Santander – Under 2.5 Goals
Finishing up in Spain, and this one at the Coliseum looks like a grind. Getafe are always tough to break down at home, and Racing Santander have been solid if unspectacular. Both teams opened their campaigns with draws – Getafe 0-0 with Alaves and Racing 2-2 with Villarreal. Getafe’s games tend to be low-scoring, and with both sides still finding their rhythm early in the season, under 2.5 at around 1.70 is the smart play.
That is Your Lot
Right then, six picks for your Sunday. The standout for me is Newcastle +0.5 against a depleted Liverpool side – that is where the bookies have got it wrong. Atletico at home is a solid banker, and over 2.5 in the Brighton game should land comfortably. As always, split your stakes, do not go lumping everything on one acca, and remember that even the best research does not guarantee a winner. But stick to the process, trust the numbers, and the profits come over time. Have a great Sunday, enjoy the football, and I will see you back here tomorrow.
