Morning! Another solid day in the books for us. Chelsea and Fulham served up a cracking 3-2 thriller at Craven Cottage, which made the over 2.5 an absolute banker. Roma absolutely demolished Fiorentina 4-0 at the Olimpico, with Donyell Malen bagging a hat-trick and Paulo Dybala pulling the strings. Deportivo held Malaga to a 1-1 draw, which landed the +0.25 Asian Handicap comfortably, and Gil Vicente did the business with a 2-0 win over Casa Pia. Bologna and Osasuna let us down. Lazio nicked a 1-0 win at the Dall’Ara, and Osasuna could not break down Levante in a dull 0-0, but four winners from six is a return I will take every day of the week. Let us see what Tuesday has in store.
Valencia vs Real Betis – Both Teams to Score
The standout game tonight is at the Mestalla, where Valencia host Real Betis in a rearranged La Liga opener. Valencia kicked off their season with a 0-0 home draw against Celta Vigo, managing just two shots on target and looking a bit blunt in attack. Betis, meanwhile, made a winning start with a 1-0 victory over Real Sociedad thanks to a Rodrigo Riquelme goal.
The head-to-head between these two is tight. Three wins each and a draw in the last seven meetings at the Mestalla, and both teams to score has landed in the last five encounters between them. Betis have seen BTTS in five straight away games and in 15 of their last 19 on the road. Valencia have seen both teams score in six of their last ten overall. With Betis missing several key players through injury, including Lo Celso and Abde, but still carrying an attacking threat through Fornals and Riquelme, and Valencia looking to open their account in front of their own fans, this should be an open affair. BTTS at around 1.75 is the pick.
Sabah vs Hapoel Beer-Sheva – Sabah to Win
Champions League play-off action now, and this one is fascinating. Hapoel Beer-Sheva hold a 2-1 lead from the first leg in Israel, but Sabah are a completely different animal at home. The Azerbaijani champions have won all four of their home games this season, scoring seven goals and keeping four clean sheets. They were 2-1 down to AGF in the previous round after the first leg, then came back to hammer the Danes 4-0 at home.
Beer-Sheva have lost two of their three away games this season, including a 2-1 defeat to Vikingur Reykjavik in the Champions League. They are playing this tie at a neutral venue in Bucharest due to the ongoing conflict in Israel, so they do not even have their home crowd behind them. Sabah at around 1.80 is value given their fortress-like home record and the fact that they need to win to stay in the competition. If you want a bit of insurance, Sabah double chance at 1.30 is an option, but I am backing the home win.
Bodo/Glimt vs NEC – Bodo/Glimt to Win
Staying in the Champions League play-offs, Bodo/Glimt take a 3-1 lead into the second leg against NEC Nijmegen at the Aspmyra Stadion. The Norwegian side are absolutely lethal at home – they have won 83 percent of their last six at the Aspmyra and have scored two or more goals in four consecutive Champions League matches. NEC have a mountain to climb and will have to push forward, which plays into Bodo’s hands perfectly.
Bodo have scored 30 percent more goals at home than predicted this season, and their attacking record in Europe is superb. NEC have struggled away from home in Europe, and with Bodo’s pressing game and the Arctic conditions in Norway, this should be comfortable for the hosts. Bodo to win at around 1.45 is short, but it is a solid accumulator leg. If you want more value, Bodo -1 Asian Handicap could be worth a look.
LASK vs Celtic – Over 2.5 Goals
The final pick comes from Linz, where LASK host Celtic with a 3-0 deficit to overturn. Now, let us be realistic – LASK are not coming back from this. But they will have a go, and that means goals. LASK have seen over 2.5 goals in four of their five official matches this season, including a 4-1 win over Ried and a 7-0 cup demolition of Kalsdorf. Celtic have scored three or more in their last three competitive games and have been in free-scoring form under Martin O’Neill.
Celtic have failed to keep a clean sheet in five of their last eight games, which suggests LASK will get a goal even if the tie is beyond them. The over 2.5 line at around 1.60 looks like a cracking price for a game where the home side have nothing to lose, and the away side have the quality to punish any gaps. Both teams to score at a similar price is also tempting, but I prefer the over.
That is All for Tuesday
Right then, four picks on a quiet Tuesday night. Valencia vs Betis should deliver goals, Sabah look rock solid at home, Bodo should see off NEC comfortably, and the LASK vs Celtic game has all the ingredients for a high-scoring affair. Good luck tonight, and I will see you back here tomorrow.
