Morning lads! Hope you all had a good Friday night and managed to get some winners on the board. The Ligue 1 opener went pretty average for us – Marseille did the business against Strasbourg with a win as predicted, but a red card in ’59 broke our BTTS prediction. But you win some, you lose some, and today is a brand new day with a massive Saturday card in front of us. The Premier League is back in full swing, and La Liga’s second round is upon us, so let us get straight into it and find some more winners.
Hull City vs Manchester United – Hull +1.5 Asian Handicap
The early kick-off at the MKM Stadium, and I am siding with the underdogs. Manchester United are heavy favorites at 1.33, but their away form does not justify the -1.5 handicap. The stats are eye-opening: Hull have covered the +1.5 line in 11 consecutive games and 17 of their last 20. United, meanwhile, have failed to cover the -1.5 line in 9 of their last 10 away games and 17 of their last 19 on the road. Hull are unbeaten in their last five at home, and while United should win the game, it will be tighter than the bookies think. Hull +1.5 at 1.82 is the value play.
Brentford vs Tottenham – Brentford 0.0 Asian Handicap
The late game at the Gtech Community Stadium is where I see the best value on the board. Brentford finished ninth last season and have strengthened well, bringing in Mamadou Sangare for a club-record fee. Tottenham finished 17th for the second year running, just two points above the drop zone, and their away form is shocking – five losses, three draws, and just two wins in their last ten on the road. Brentford are unbeaten in their last five at home, and the 0.0 Asian Handicap at 1.75 means you get your money back if it is a draw. Tottenham have failed to cover the 0.0 line in 17 of their last 20 games and eight of their last ten away. Brentford should win this, but the insurance of the draw makes it a no-brainer.
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United – Nottingham Forest to Win
Forest host Leeds at the City Ground, and I fancy the home side. Forest finished third last season and have been solid at home. Leeds come up from the Championship and will find the step up tough. Forest have the quality with players like Chris Wood and Morgan Gibbs-White, and their home record is strong. Leeds will be up for it, but Forest at around 1.85 is a solid play.
Everton vs Crystal Palace – Under 2.5 Goals
Goodison Park hosts this one, and I am expecting a tight, cagey affair. Everton survived relegation by the skin of their teeth last season, and Palace were not much better. Both teams have new managers trying to figure things out, and opening day nerves tend to produce low-scoring games. Under 2.5 at around 1.80 looks smart.
Ipswich Town vs Sunderland – Both Teams to Score
Two promoted sides going at it at Portman Road, and this should be an open game. Ipswich have been scoring freely in the Championship, and Sunderland have attacking quality too. Both teams will want to make a statement on their return to the top flight, and BTTS at around 1.70 is a solid play.
Athletic Club vs Sevilla – Athletic Club -0.75 Asian Handicap
Over in Spain, Athletic Club host Sevilla at San Mames, and the Basques look strong. Athletic are favorites at 1.64, and their home form is decent with four wins in their last ten at San Mames. Sevilla, meanwhile, have lost six of their last ten away games, conceding an average of 2.10 goals per match. The -0.75 Asian Handicap at 1.81 means a one-goal win gives you half your stake back and a two-goal win pays full. Athletic beat Sevilla 3-2 the last time they met here, and I fancy them to get the job done again.
Espanyol vs Real Madrid – Espanyol +1.25 Asian Handicap
Real Madrid travel to the RCDE Stadium, and while they should win, Espanyol +1.25 at 1.91 is too good to pass up. Espanyol finished 11th last season and won their final game 3-0 at home. Madrid have a new manager in Jose Mourinho and have been active in the transfer market, but they are still finding their feet. Espanyol have covered the +1.25 line in their last two against Madrid, and with the home crowd behind them, they should keep it close. This is a smart defensive bet.
Wrapping It Up
Right then, that is your lot for today. Seven picks across England and Spain, and I genuinely think there is value in every single one of them. Hull +1.5 and Brentford 0.0 are the two that really stand out – the bookies have massively underestimated the home sides in both of those. Forest and Athletic Club should take care of business at home, and the under in the Everton game feels like a stone-cold banker.
Oh, and remember yesterday’s French league predictions. You can see them HERE.
As always, split your stakes, do not go lumping everything on one acca, and for the love of God, do not chase if things go south early. The long game is what matters. Have a great Saturday, enjoy the football, and I will see you back here tomorrow.
