Chris’s Daily Football Picks – Tuesday, August 11, 2026

What’s going on, lads? Chris here, back with another slate of picks after spending the morning grinding through the tip sites, the stats sheets, and the team news. I’ve been in this game long enough to know that Tuesdays in August mean one thing – Champions League qualifying chaos. These second-leg ties are where the real value lives, and I’ve dug deep into the data from SportyTrader, Free Super Tips, Betalyst, Oddstake, MightyTips, and the rest of the crew to find the bets worth your money today.

Let’s get straight into it. No fluff, just winners.

Pick 1: Bodo/Glimt to Win vs Union Saint-Gilloise

If you watched the first leg, you already know this tie is a goal-fest waiting to happen. The Norwegians went to Belgium and came away with a 3-3 draw, which means they hold the away-goals advantage heading back to Aspmyra Stadion. I’ve been tracking Bodo/Glimt for years, and their home record in Europe is genuinely frightening – they’ve won 13 of their last 18 home matches in European competition and are currently on an 11-match unbeaten streak across all comps.

Union Saint-Gilloise are no mugs – they opened their Belgian season with a 5-1 demolition of Westerlo and have attacking weapons like Raul Florucz and Promise David who can hurt anyone. But travelling north of the Arctic Circle to Aspmyra is a completely different animal. The atmosphere, the artificial pitch, and the fact Bodo/Glimt only need to avoid defeat all point to a home win. The bookies have Bodo/Glimt at around 1.66, and I think that’s generous. I’m backing the Norwegians to get the job done in 90 minutes.

The Bet: Bodo/Glimt to Win

Pick 2: Over 2.5 Goals – Bodo/Glimt vs Union Saint-Gilloise

I’m doubling down on this fixture because the numbers are screaming at me. The first leg finished 3-3, and both of these teams play attacking football that leaves gaps at the back. Over 2.5 goals has landed in two of Bodo/Glimt’s last three games, while Union SG’s three fixtures this term have averaged a wild 4.67 goals per game.

Bodo/Glimt have scored 43 goals in 17 Eliteserien matches this season – that’s 2.5 per game at the top level in Norway. Union need to score to stand any chance of going through, which means they’ll have to push forward and leave space for the counter. This has 3-1 or 2-2 written all over it. At around 1.44 for over 2.5, this is one of the safest bets on the board today.

The Bet: Over 2.5 Match Goals

Pick 3: Crvena Zvezda to Win vs Hapoel Beer Sheva

The Serbian giants trail 1-0 after a shock first-leg defeat in Hungary, but let me tell you something – Stadion Rajko Mitic is a fortress, and Zvezda are a different animal at home. They’ve plundered 17 goals across their last five matches, averaging 3.4 per game.

Hapoel Beer Sheva are coming into this with some serious problems. They conceded 10 goals in their five matches leading into the first leg, and they’ve now lost influential midfielder Kings Kangwa to Panathinaikos before this tie.

Zvezda are priced at 1.24, which is too short for a single, but if you’re building an accumulator, this is your banker. Dejan Stankovic’s men will come out flying from the first whistle, and I expect them to overturn this deficit comfortably.

The Bet: Crvena Zvezda to Win

Pick 4: Over 2.5 Goals – Lyon vs Sparta Prague

Lyon are in a hole after losing the first leg 2-1 in Prague, and they need to attack from minute one at the Groupama Stadium. Paulo Fonseca’s side have scored at least twice in six of their last seven home matches in Europe, and with players like Malick Fofana and Ernest Nuamah likely to start after strong cameos in the first leg, the firepower is there.

Sparta Prague are no defensive wall either – they’ve failed to keep a clean sheet in their last six matches, and both teams have scored in four of their last five games.

The over 2.5 line at 1.60 is value in my book. Lyon need goals, Sparta can score on the break, and this tie has all the ingredients of a 3-1 or 2-2 thriller.

The Bet: Over 2.5 Goals

Pick 5: Dinamo Zagreb to Win to Nil vs Kauno Zalgiris

Sometimes the best bets are the ones where you don’t overthink it. Dinamo Zagreb absolutely demolished Kauno Zalgiris 5-0 in the first leg in Lithuania, limiting them to just three shots and none on target.

The Croatian champions are a class above, and with a five-goal cushion, they could rotate and still keep a clean sheet at home. Kauno Zalgiris have shown nothing to suggest they can trouble Zagreb’s backline, and at odds around 1.33 for the home win, this is another rock-solid accumulator leg. If you want a bit more juice, Zagreb to win to nil is the way to go.

The Bet: Dinamo Zagreb to Win to Nil

Pick 6: Slovan Bratislava to Win vs Mjallby

Slovan carry a 2-1 lead from the first leg in Sweden, and they’re back on home soil where they’ve made an unbeaten start to their domestic season with four wins in five games. Mjallby, meanwhile, are in dreadful form – just one win in their last 12 matches, with three defeats in their last four.

The Slovakian side know a draw is enough, but they’ve got the quality to put this tie to bed in 90 minutes. At around 1.84, Slovan to win offers decent value for a team that’s clearly superior and playing with confidence.

The Bet: Slovan Bratislava to Win

Pick 7: Celje to Win and Both Teams to Score vs Ararat-Armenia

This is my value pick of the day. Celje trail 2-1 from the first leg in Armenia, so they need to attack at home. The good news? They’ve scored in every single one of their games this season and are unbeaten at home. Ararat-Armenia have also found the net in every match they’ve played this term, but they’ve lost both of their previous away qualifiers – at Riga and Shamrock Rovers.

The hosts have the quality to turn this around, but Ararat’s attacking record suggests they’ll get on the scoresheet too. The combo of Celje to win and BTTS is priced attractively and makes a lot of sense tactically.

The Bet: Celje to Win and Both Teams to Score

Pick 8: Lyon Over 1.5 Team Goals vs Sparta Prague

I’m going back to the Groupama Stadium for this one because the angle is too strong to ignore. Lyon need to score at least twice to have a realistic chance of progressing, and they’ve hit at least two goals in six of their last seven home European matches.

Sparta’s defense has been leaky, and with Lyon likely to throw everything forward, I expect the French side to find the net at least twice. This is a great alternative if you don’t fancy the outright over 2.5 in the match.

The Bet: Lyon Over 1.5 Team Goals

Today’s Acca Builder

For those of you who like a cheeky accumulator, here’s my Tuesday treble:

• Crvena Zvezda to Win (1.24)
• Dinamo Zagreb to Win to Nil (1.33)
• Bodo/Glimt to Win (1.66)

That pays around 2.74 for a treble – not life-changing, but a solid, data-backed parlay with three teams that should all get the job done at home.

If you want a bit more risk and reward, swap in Slovan Bratislava to win at 1.84 instead of Zvezda, and add the Bodo/Glimt over 2.5 goals. That four-fold would pay significantly better.

Final Words

Tuesday’s card is all about Champions League qualifying second legs, and that means motivation, home advantage, and aggregate scorelines are everything. I’ve been doing this long enough to know that teams trailing after the first leg are often the best bets – they have to attack, and that creates goal-scoring opportunities at both ends.

As always, manage your bankroll, don’t chase losses, and remember that even the best picks can go sideways when a keeper has a worldie or a ref decides to lose his mind. But the numbers, the form, and the team news all point toward a profitable day if you stick to the plan.

Good luck out there, lads. May your bets be green and your VAR reviews be quick.

Disclaimer: All picks are for informational and entertainment purposes only. Please gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose. If you need help, visit GambleAware.org.